2024 MLB PREVIEW: AL CENTRAL
The AL Central is shockingly average. Honestly, I could see any of these teams figuring it out and making a run at the division. This division is filled with young stars, Bobby Witt Jr, Spencer Torkelson, Royce Lewis, Luis Robert, and more. These guys are fun to watch, but are they ready to lead their teams to a division championship?
Kansas City Royals
The Skinny: The Royals entered the 2023 season with some pretty small hopes and dreams. Arguably, they managed to defy the odds and not reach those minuscule expectations, losing 106 games, tying their worst season in franchise history. The one MASSIVE bright spot comes in the form of their young star Bobby Witt Jr. He entered the 30/30 club, finishing the season with 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases. Witt was promptly rewarded for his season, earning an 11-year contract extension guaranteeing $288.7 million. A three-year team option could extend the deal another 3 years and give Witt about $90 million more. I’m focusing so much on Witt because he is the Royals right now. He is their cornerstone, their franchise player, and the reason they have a chance to turn this thing around.
The Royals went out and added some pitching help, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were brought in to shore up the rotation, while Will Smith and Chris Stratton will bring some depth to the bullpen. Positional player-wise, they added some veteran bats to help extend the lineup, Garrett Hampson, Hunter Renfroe, and Adam Frazier all signed deals with the Royals. Along with the extension of Witt, the Royals brought in enough to make them better, but not a contender.
Bottom Line: Outside of Witt, there just still isn’t enough juice to make this team a contender in an already pretty weak AL Central. The pitching should be okay at best, and could potentially be pretty solid if young hurlers Cole Ragans and Brady Singer make improvements. It’s pretty clear that this team and organization understand they are in the midst of a rebuild. 2024 is not a postseason type of year, hovering around .500 and not suffering another brutal season would be a step in the right direction for this organization. They are a mid-70s win ball club. If all goes well, high-70s, if they collapse like last season, they’ll probably be hoping and praying for 70 wins.
Chicago White Sox
The Skinny: Oh man, what happened to the White Sox? After the 2021 season, the White Sox were the talk of the town. With a talented roster filled with young and old, the White Sox looked prime in 2022 and 2023 to become perennial AL Central contenders. Heading into 2023, the White Sox entered 2023 with big names: Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, and Lance Lynn in the starting rotation. Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, and Andrew Benintendi headlined an extremely deep lineup. That’s a whole lot of talent, especially in what is arguably the weakest division in baseball.
The 2023 White Sox were horrendous, they missed their win projection by nearly 20 games and finished with 101 losses. Lance Lynn fell off the face of the earth and was traded at the deadline, Cease and Giolito were hit-and-miss, Kopech was brutal, and the bullpen was serviceable until they got picked apart at the deadline. Offensively, none of their “young stars” did much of anything. Moncada hurt, Tim Anderson was maybe the worst player in baseball, Benintendi continued his downward spiral, and Vaughn and Jimenez were hard to watch. Luis Robert lived up to the expectations, but one man can only do so much.
The offseason was kind of meh. They added some roster depth in all facets, bullpen, rotation, and lineup. That’s about it, nothing of big note. Paul DeJong, Mike Moustakas, Nicky Lopez in a trade with the Braves, but that’s about it. The White Sox leaned into the narrative that there’s not much they can do right now given their current roster structure.
The Bottom Line: 2024 will be weird in Chicago, they most likely will move on from a lot of their pieces at the deadline, but how many they move on from we will have to wait and see. This roster is stuck right now, they need to either try and build off the current roster, or start from scratch. Do they move on from Robert and get a massive haul? This is a team that most likely finishes around the 100-loss range. If they become massive sellers at the deadline: look away, it will be ugly.
Cleveland Guardians
The Skinny: For the first time in more than a decade, there is a new captain of the ship in Cleveland. Following the retirement of hall-of-famer Terry Francona, the Guardians went out and brought in former All-Star Catcher Steven Vogt to be the new skipper. Cleveland was in the mix for the division through the All-Star break but had a rough second half. They struggled to get going offensively and did not bring much pop to the batter's box. Pitching and defense were strong enough to keep them competitive, but not good enough to put them over the top.
What really killed the Guardians was their reluctance to once again bring in talent at the deadline. The moves they did make, Noah Syndergaard and Lucas Giolito, ended poorly. This is a trend that always keeps Cleveland out of serious contention, their refusal to spend money is killing them. Jose Ramirez is a dude who once again did his thing in 2024, but besides him, it’s a lot of nice contributors and role players like Steven Kwan, both the Naylor brothers and Andres Gimenez.
That trend continued into the offseason as they made some non-needle-moving additions in Carlos Carrasco, Ben Lively, and Tyler Beede to the pitching staff, along with Austin Hedges and Estevan Florial to the lineup.
Bottom Line: With their refusal to spend money, the Guardians are who they are. They are an average roster, anchored by some solid pitching from former Cy Young Winner Shane Bieber and company. Luckily for Cleveland, they play in the AL Central! They will be competitive in the division and will most likely be somewhere in the 80-win conversation and have a fighting chance to become the AL Central Champs.
There are a lot of ways this season could go. Will it finally be the year the Guardians add big names at the deadline and push them over the hump? Or will they flounder early and sell guys like Shane Bieber or Jose Ramirez at the deadline? It seems as if this Cleveland team always finds a way to be competitive and in the conversation, but they are not a division-leading roster. IF all goes well, I can see the Guardians being a high-80-win squad with a Wild Card birth.
Detroit Tigers
The Skinny: The Detroit Tigers are this division's wild card. They are neck deep in their “rebuilding” phase, as it seems like they’ve been rebuilding for a decade. The Tigers had a rough 2019 and 2020, but saw an emerging team in 2021. Some poor offseason moves leading up to 2022 stunted some growth, but we saw another step in the right direction in 2023. They finished 78-84, which was good enough for second in a rough AL Central.
The Tigers showed real growth in the second half of the season, especially in their last 28 games, finishing the season 18-10. Spencer Torkleson, their former No. 1 overall pick, showed up in the second half of the season. He logged 31 home runs last year, a massive step in the right direction. Guys like Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter look to continue their strong 2023 campaign in 2024. Will they get any production from their marquee singing of the past years in Javier Baez? All signs point to no, but at least he’s still been an elite defender.
Pitching-wise, Tarik Skubal was their stud, posting a 2.80 ERA. He was limited to only 80 ⅓ innings in 2023, but he looks to be a young ace in the making. Reese Olson and the offseason additions of Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty look to fill out the rotation. The other few starters will shake out during spring training. They went out and added veteran outfielder Mark Canha from the Mets, Gio Urshella, as well as well-traveled reliever Andrew Chafin. The key pieces of Jason Foley, Will Vest, and Tyler Holton are still around in the bullpen, which is arguably the strongest position group on roster.
The Bottom Line: If the Tigers can get any production from their offense they will be in the conversation to win the AL Central. I mean, SOMEONE has to. The pitching seems ready to roll, it’s a younger group but all signs have pointed to strong development of their arms. If they could get some juice from Javy Baez, or even get rid of him, they’d be in a much better spot. They are lacking another bat in this lineup, maybe even two bats. They are not a team that’s going to dominate, but at the end of the day, this division will keep them afloat. I see this Tigers team topping out at high 70s - low 80s in the win column. Another step in the right direction, but they’re just not there yet.
Minnesota Twins
The Skinny: The Minnesota Twins enter this year with the highest hopes in the division, as they are frankly the only playoff-caliber roster in the AL Central. The 2023 season was dominated by their pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez were both phenomenal, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda were above average as well. These guys combined for a deep and effective starting staff. The offense in 2023 was led by former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, as their stars struggled all last year. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton both were non-factors.
Minnesota won a playoff series last year, but the Astros got their revenge against Correa and did quick work of the Twins in the second round. The biggest storyline of the offseason for the Twins was not what they did, it’s what they did not do. Out the door are the likes of Michael Taylor, Joey Gallo, Kenta Maeda, Donovan Solano, Dallas Keuchel, and their ace Sonny Gray. That’s quite the group of talent to let walk. They brought in Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson, so it looks as if they’re banking on resurgences from Correa and Buxton as well as continued development of their young guns.
The Bottom Line: This team has lucked out in regards to the rest of the division being .500 or lower rosters. This seems to be the best roster in the division, and they should not have much of a fight from their division counterparts. The rotation and the bullpen are their key, if they perform anything like last year, they’ll be fine. If Royce Lewis continues to blossom into a star and they get any sort of production from Buxton and Correa, they’ll be able to put up some runs. I see this team with a mid-80s win total. They’re not going to wow anyone, but they’ll compete, win games, and make it into the postseason.
OVERALL FINAL STANDING PROJECTION:
Twins (85-77)
Guardians (82-80)
Tigers (81-81)
Royals (75-87)
White Sox (70-92)
Comentários