2024 NL West Preview:
Colorado Rockies
The Skinny: A 2023 season filled with disappointments and losing led the Rockies to a last-place finish in the NL West with a record of 59-103, their worst in the history of the franchise. The two highlights of the season were Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle, two rookies who put together impressive campaigns. Their big free-agent acquisitions of the past few years, Kris Bryant and Jurikson Profar, were both subpar at best in 2023.
This offseason Colorado was pretty stagnant, they brought in some young guys to join their young core. They brought in Jacob Stallings, a catcher from Pittsburgh, and Dakota Hudson, a pitcher from St. Louis. On top of that, they made a trade for Cal Quantrill, a backend starter from Cleveland. Besides that, not much was going on the hot stove for the Rockies. They’re sticking to their core, whether that’s good or not, we will find out.
The Bottom Line: The most likely scenario is it’s going to be another tough season in the Mile-High City. The positives are their young guys will see a lot of action and at-bats. Hopefully, Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle can continue to take steps in the right direction and build off of successful rookie seasons. Kris Bryant looks to return to the KB of old, Colorado is depending on it. For everyone’s sake, let’s keep the losses under 100 this year.
San Francisco Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have been one of those teams who just always seem to figure out ways to win games. After a dynamic 2021 where they won 107 games, they’ve been on the ropes the past two seasons. 2022 saw the Giants finish with a visually appealing 81-81, but struggling to get consistent starting pitching combined with an ever-changing lineup card.
In 2023, the Giants aimed to resolve those issues and went after some of the biggest fish in the market. Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa sent San Fran packing. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb headlined the rotation, and Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto were the guys in the middle of the lineup.
Cobb and Webb held up their end of the bargain. Webb was one of the best in the league in 2023, and Cobb was good, not great. Beyond that, it was a plug-and-play process. Sean Manea, Anthony DeSclafani, Tristen Beck, and Jakob Junis were the next guys up, but only Manea showed glimpses of impressive hurling. Offensively, Confront and Haniger were once again plagued by injury. While they were dominant defensively, the bats never got hot. They finished 2023 at 79-84. Manager Gabe Kepler was relieved of his duties shortly after and replaced with former Padres Manager, Bob Melvin.
They went out this winter and made some moves that moved the needle, but barely. They signed Jung Hoo Lee out of Japan to a six-year deal, moved on from Anthony Desclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle for pitcher Robbie Ray, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. The addition of Jordan Hicks, pitcher from St. Louis, is intriguing. It looks like Hicks will have a chance to start games, rather than come out of the bullpen like he has most of his career. The addition of middle-of-lineup thumper Jorge Soler can provide some much-needed run production, but he’s one of the streakier guys in baseball.
The Bottom Line: The Giants are an interesting team this year but find themselves towards the bottom of one of the better divisions in baseball. As it stands, the Giants figure to battle for 3rd or 4th in the division, and potentially for a Wild Card spot if they outperform their metric projections. I have them sitting in the high 70’s to low 80’s win total. With production from the lineup’s new additions, they could get a boost into the mid-80s.
San Diego Padres
The Skinny: For those of us who followed the Padres in 2023, we all know how much of a failure it was. One of the most star-studded lineups in baseball with World Series on the mind was a dud. They finished 2023 with an 82-80 record and a missed postseason.
Cy Young winner Blake Snell was phenomenal and the pitching staff was book-ended by one of the best closer in baseball, Josh Hader. Core players Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado all produced. The pitching staff got help from Seth Lugo, Joe Musgrove, and Micheal Wacha, while Yu Darvish was slowed due to injury. Overall, the pitching staff tied the major league lead in ERA at 3.73. Nothing ever clicked, it wasn’t due to a lack of production or talent, it was just one of those things that happens from time to time.
They started the offseason by losing their aforementioned Manager Bob Melvin, who took the Giants' job. The rest of the offseason featured cutting salary. They let Micheal Wacha walk and Blake Snell is still a free agent, but a return to San Diego is unlikely. With Soto dealt to the Yankees and Hader signing with the Astros, the 2024 Padres look much different.
Acquisitions of Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez will provide depth for the starting pitching staff. San Diego brought in relievers Yuki Matsui and Go Woo-Suk to be backend relievers. Jurikson Profar joined the Padres once again after a horrendous 2023 with the Rockies. Mike Shildt was tabbed as the new manager.
The Bottom Line: There is still talent up and down this roster. While the roster may be in a short series of flux, they will still win some games. In a tough NL West, they have to stay healthy in the positions that matter most. With an unproven backend of the pitching rotation, a shaky bullpen, and question marks at the corner outfield positions, this season could be up and down. I see them and the Padres fighting it out for the 3rd or 4th spot in the division. Whoever stays healthier will end up on top and they will be in the fight for a wild card birth.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Skinny: The NL Champs are back! The young core that snuck into the postseason got hot to end 2023 and kept it rolling into the World Series. Led by young star and NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, productive seasons for Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and top-end starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the Diamondbacks’ 84 wins gave them life.
Despite this success, the Diamondbacks had clear limitations throughout the season. They lacked depth in their lineup and were pretty poor coming out of the bullpen. Despite all this, they clicked at the right time.
Arizona got busy in the offseason to make up for the disappointing World Series. The addition of Eduardo Rodriguez to the pitching staff provides depth and a reliable third arm. They resigned Lourdes Gurriel, brought in veteran third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and added the big lefty Joc Pederson to provide some power. Most of these don’t extend to adding much star power but fill holes at valuable spots.
The Bottom Line: There is room for improvement for this team as far as the regular season is concerned, and I think they should top out in the mid-high 80s for wins once again. If Corbin Carrol continues to be dominant, and their young core makes steps in the right direction, they will be the second-best team in the division. The roster does not have any holes per se, but I will say their ceiling is lower than the top of the NL. They have talent and a good enough supporting cast to make it all run, but a mid-season acquisition could put them over the top.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Skinny: World Series or Bust. It really is. The Dodgers won 100 games last year in the regular season and lost in the Division Series. The core of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, JD Martinez, and Max Muncy should hug and kiss the front office. The Dodgers brought in arguably the best player baseball has seen in generations Shohei Ohtani, coveted Japanese starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, All-Star starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, and power-threat outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. The Dodgers are absolutely loaded, beyond loaded.
Despite all the talent on the roster last year, we saw how injuries can plague a roster. 17 different pitchers started games for the Dodgers. Walker Buehler didn’t take the mound once, Dustin May went under the knife with Tommy John, Noah Syndergaard was traded to the Guardians, and Julio Urias was a trainwreck all year. Offensively, the Dodgers were one of the best in the business. Mookie, Freddie, JD, and Max all put in great years, while Jason Heyward showed some old J-Hey and had 15 dingers.
The pitching gave way in the Divisional Round and the Diamondbacks were all over the Dodgers. To make up for it, they spent, in total, more than ONE BILLION dollars in free agency.
The Bottom Line: We’ve seen how talented the Dodgers are heading into the season in the past. This year is no exception. This may be the most talented team I’ve ever seen offensively. They have to make a deep run this year.
The addition of Yamamoto, Glasnow, and even veteran lefty James Paxton, provides elite late-season depth to the starting rotation. The mid-season recoveries of Dustin May and Walker Buehler may provide a boost to the rotation and bring it 5-6 deep. Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery early in the offseason, is circling a late-season return. If the rotation goes into the postseason healthy, they will be feared by opponents. I expect this team to fit into the 100-win range, and surge towards the end of the season once their staff becomes fully healthy. The offensive is top to bottom, and the defense is no slouch either.
It’s going to be a fun ride for Dodgers fans, but we all know that it won’t matter until October hits.
OVERALL FINAL STANDING PROJECTION:
Dodgers (102-60)
Diamondbacks (89-73)
Padres (85-77)
Giants (79-83)
Rockies (65-97)
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