St. Louis Cardinals
The Skinny: The Cardinals have fallen far from their dominance in the NL Central. Last season, St. Louis lost 90+ games, the first time in more than three decades, and their first time finishing under .500 since 2007.
The lineup wasn’t as bad as you may imagine, Willson Contreras and Nolan Gorman were impressive, along with Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donavan, and Jordan Walker. That’s 5 guys who has good campaigns with the bat, so where did this team go wrong? Pretty much everything else. To start, Goldschmidt and Arenado, had down years. The defense was poor and the pitching was unimpressive. While both were slightly below average, when combined, it was a recipe for 90+ losses. They struggled to prevent runs and get off the field. When they got rid of Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline it didn’t get any better. To respond, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson were added to the rotation to provide some stability and eat innings.
The Bottom Line: The Cardinals should have a comeback season, as of right now they are projected to win 84 wins (according to fangraphs). This is an organization that always finds a way to win. I think with the addition of Grey they’ll have a guy at the top of the rotation who’ll get the ball every 5 or 6 games and put them in position to win. Lynn and Gibson will provide depth to the rotation, and the lineup brings back their guys. With resurgences from Arenado and Goldy, I can see this team making a run at the Central crown. I’m going with high-80s wins!
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Skinny: The Pirates managed a 78-86 campaign in 2023 and avoided last place! Woohoo! In the beginning of the year they were the darlings of baseball, going 20-9 through April. May hit hard, 8-18. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Bryan Reynolds were fine, and the rest of the lineup were full of “who?” and “just fine” players. Their ace Mitch Keller showed his stuff and was a capable arm, and their top reliever David Bednar, was elite. Other than that, theres not much to mention.
You could say the Pirates had a smaller offseason, but for them, I’d argue it was actually relatively productive. They added veterans Yasmani Grandal, Aroldis Chapman, Martin Perez, and ANDREW MCCUTCHEN (He’s backkkkkk) to one-year deals. They locked in Keller for 5 more years, and added some guys via minor league deals who may be able to compete for roster sports.
The Bottom Line: The Pirates have assembled a core to truly build around. Keller, Hayes, Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz should be key contributors for years to come. The question now surrounds if they can do enough to supplement that core. Will ownership provide enough cash to sign some big fish? Can they develop their core? I’m not sure any of those questions will be answered this year. This roster just still isn’t all the way there. They’re going to struggle, they lack depth, and don’t really have too much to be excited about beyond their core. They didn’t add enough to be a real contender. They benefit from a weird NL Central, as well as having some guys solidified in the lineup, I see them being competitive, but struggling to get over the hump. I project mid 70 wins again this season.
Cincinnati Reds
The Skinny: The city of Cincinnati has some to cheer about: a playoff-hopeful Reds team! This team was a rollercoaster of emotions last year, but when they were playing well, they were by far the most entertaining team in baseball. Matt McClain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, TJ Friedl, and Alexis Diaz were the catalysts behind the fun. They also happened to have the worst defense in baseball, which kept things… interesting. Their rotation was tough, but was boosted by a top-five bullpen!
The Reds went out and added Jeimer Candelario at 3rd base, Frankie Montas to the starting rotation, and Nick Martinez to the bullpen/rotation.
The Bottom Line: The question marks still surround the rotation, and I once again think that could be the thing that holds this team back. If they can just be average, this is a playoff team. They benefit from playing in a weak division full of question marks. If guys like Green and De La Cruz can take another step, along with production from the rest of their young core, this team can get in the low to mid 80s for wins, and possibly a division title!
Chicago Cubs
The Skinny: The Cubs pulled off one of the more interesting moves this offseason by relieving David Ross of his duties and poaching Craig Counsell from their in-division rival Milwaukee Brewers. The 2023 squad was surprisingly good, they finished just a game out of a playoff spot. They got rid of a lot of their core, but brought in Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger. They went on a heater late in the summer, including an 18-9 August. In early September, they were firmly in the second wild card spot, but that slipped through their hands quickly, losing won just 7 games after September 6th. Who took their spot? The Arizona Diamondbacks. Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ had great seasons at the plate, while Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner were terrific in the field.
The pitching staff was fueled by strong seasons from Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele, while veteran Marcus Stroman did enough as the third guy. The offseason didn’t bring much other than bringing in Japanese import Shota Imanaga and resigning Cody Bellinger.
The Bottom Line: The Cubs have strong core pieces and I think they will see a resurgence from Dansby Swanson in the batters box. Steele, Imanaga, Hendricks, and Jamerson Taillon is a serviceable rotation. With a weak division, and some guys in key positions, I think this team will be trouble in the Central. They add one of their top prospects in Pete-Crow Armstrong to the lineup. In a world where they are contenders I can see them adding a first basemen or DH in the middle of the season, unless someone comes out of nowhere who’s currently on roster. I have them with a mid 80s floor.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Skinny: The offseason got off to a rocky start when 9-year manager Craig Counsell left for the Cubs. On the other hand, the 2023 season was pretty smooth. The 92-win Brewers cruised to a NL Central title and took care of business throughout the year. The offense was powered by William Contreras and Christian Yelich, who both had top-notch seasons. Other than that, nobody who started the season in Milwaukee was of much notice offensively. The mid-season additions of Mark Canha and Carlos Santana provided a jolt down the stretch, but have since left the organization.
The team was phenomenal defensively, which bolstered the pitching staff. Cy Young winner Corbin Burns was unreal all year long. Freddy Peralta was equally as good. Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Adrian Houser filled out the rotation, but battled some injuries with Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby. The bullpen was led by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, and Hoby Milner.
The Bottom Line: The offseason brough the departure of NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burns via a trade by the front office. They held on to a lot of their pitching staff other than Burns. Despite some obvious holes offensively, their offseason additions player position wise was pretty snooze worthy. The addition of first basemen Rhys Hoskins brings some juice to the lineup, as well as power hitting Gary Sanchez. The expectation for this team in the playoffs. With a new manager and a seemingly shaky pitching staff, along with a roster that lacks depth, this team has a lot of work to do. Guys like Hoskins, Brice Turang, and Jackson Chourio HAVE to take steps in the right direction. I see a slight regression from the Brewers this year, somewhere around the mid to high 80s.
OVERALL FINAL STANDING PROJECTION:
Brewers (88-74)
Cubs (85-77)
Cardinals (84-78)
Reds (82-80)
Pirates (76-86)
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