(AP Photo/Raul Romero Jr.)
The All-Star Break has concluded and we are heading down the home stretch of the season. For people who haven’t watched a second of NBA ball this year, now is the perfect time to start watching. You can get a sense of who’s who before the playoffs start. Separate the contenders from the pretenders. Instead of going on one long tangent, this is going to be broken into 5 separate tangents. Here goes nothing.
1) The MVP Race
The Most Valuable Player award always seems to be brought down to a 2 or 3 headed race. After Joel Embiid’s injury a month ago it seemed that we were down to 2 candidates. Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 2-time MVP for Denver is averaging 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists. Another near triple-double season that has become normal for the Joker. He is the favorite and if the season continues with the Nuggets being a top 2 seed, he will win his third MVP and be the ninth player in the history of the league to win the award three times.
The only three letters in his way…
SGA.
Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has juice. He is averaging 31 points a game and puts it up in the most silky-smooth way you can imagine. He had an unreal first half of the year getting his team to the 2-seed and a game and a half back of the 1-seed. Despite having a great first half, to win the MVP the Thunder will no doubt have to end as the 1 seed and SGA will need to have gone on a tear. It’s possible, and it’s something we discussed a month ago, so it’s something to look out for.
2) Tale of Two 1-Seeds
We’ve got two very different 1-seeds to talk about. We’ll start in Minnesota. The 1-seed in the Western Conference is the Minnesota Timberwolves. In recent seasons especially in the West we see a team come out of nowhere and have a phenomenal season and end as a top 2 seed, despite this, they don’t seem to get much love. I’m thinking the Utah Jazz from a couple of seasons ago or the Memphis Grizzlies who said ‘they were fine in the west’. Despite being a 1-seed the Timberwolves aren’t getting a bunch of love. They’ve got their studs in Ant Edwards and KAT, and a stud off the bench in SGS’s hero Naz Reid. They’ve got a good team but am I taking them over the Nuggets, Clippers, or Suns? No way. Even the 7-seeded Mavs, 9-seeded Lakers, and 10-seeded Warriors. All three of these teams have a great chance to win a 7 game series against Minnesota. Despite being such a high seed, the Timberwolves are playing this season with house money. If they lost to LeBron or Steph in the first round nobody would blame them but it would however hurt how seriously we take them next year.
The 1-seed in the East however will be under a much different microscope. For the Celtics, this year it seems like Finals or bust. Calling their offseason a reload would be an understatement. They got rid of Marcus Smart and Rob Williams and upgraded with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. They are 6 games ahead of the 2-seeded Cavaliers and are a league-best 43-12. (Puts in perspective how nuts the Warrior's 73-9 year was). The Celtics really should make the Eastern Conference Finals but would an exit against a late-blooming Heat team or a scrappy Knicks team be surprising? It would not.
The Timberwolves have nothing to lose and the Celtics everything, yet they are both 1-seeds. That’s just the association we’ve grown to love.
3) Two through 5 in the East
This is what differentiates this year from past years in the East. Going into the postseason it usually seems like there are two real contenders to make it out of the conference. This year after the Celtics at 1 the standings go like this:
2. Cavaliers
3. Bucks
4. Knicks
5. Sixers
Any one of these teams has the firepower to make it to the Finals. They each have one star whose ceiling is series-altering with great supporting casts around them. When Embiid is back and healthy we are going to have some phenomenal matchups in even the first round of the playoffs. The Pacers sitting at 6 are going to be a tough out and the Heat at 7 could beat any of the teams already mentioned simply because of the gear they seem to turn to every postseason.
4) The City of Angels
Both the Clippers and the Lakers are going to be very interesting to watch coming down the stretch this season. The Clippers are currently the 3 seed after a solid 2024 campaign thus far. They are 36-17 and 2 games back of the Timberwolves. Everybody is healthy and their roster which would be an all-star team from 6 years ago is going to be a very tough out, come playoff time. Since their blockbuster trade acquiring both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, they have not panned out the way we thought they would. Whether it be because of injury or the roster around them, they have struggled down the home stretch. Besides their two top dawgs, James Harden is showing shades of his past self, and Russell Westbrook buying into his role off the bench both have been huge for the Clippers and have sparked this surge. Not many people have the Clippers winning it all but they absolutely are a team that could make the Finals.
The Lakers on the other hand are the 9 seed at 30-26. They went into the all-star break 7-3 in their last 10 and seemed to be hitting their groove. We already know what LeBron and Anthony Davis bring to the table, but lately, we’ve been seeing a lot more of Austin Reeves and D’Angelo Russell. They have turned into closers and can take a game over late, which is exactly what the Lakers have needed.
The play-in tournament was made for exactly this reason. Giving teams that are right on the bubble a chance to go make a run. If the Lakers can string together enough wins late to get the 7 or 8 seed, and they face a Minnesota, or an OKC in the first round, are you betting against LeBron? I’m not.
All we can hope for is for these two teams to stay healthy because the league is a lot better when LeBron, AD, Kawhi, and Paul George are in the playoffs.
5) The Denver Nuggets
The Reigning Champs are 36-19 and 3 games back of the 1-seed. Their dominant championship team from last year lost their 6th man in Bruce Brown but other then that have brought back the same team. As with a lot of other top teams right now, we aren’t seeing Denver in their best form, and we really won’t until the playoffs start rolling. Having the Number 1 overall seed was a huge part of their success in the postseason last year. Head Coach Michael Malone emphasized that throughout their entire title run.
They’re going to need a great last 27 games if they want the 1-seed again but I wouldn’t put it past them. If they can turn it on and get the 1-seed, watch out, because we very well may have the first repeat champs since ‘17-’18 when the Warriors did it.
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